Competitive Democratic House of Representative candidates

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday July 23, 2016 · 4:20 PM PDT

2016/07/23 · 16:20

Now that opensecrets.org had pretty much fully updated the fundraising figures, I can better judge which districts and Democratic candidates are competitive.

This is broken down into four categories with my rankings at the end.

Vs. Long time Republican incumbents (named in bracket with 2014 election results) ranked by my prediction of competitiveness
1.Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey 5 (E. Scott Garrett 55.4-44.3)
2.Morgan Carroll, Colorado 6 (Mike Coffman, 51.9-43.0)
3.Gretchen Driskell, Michigan 7 (Tim Walberg, 53.5-41.2)
4.Michael Eggman, California 10 (Jeff Denham, 56.1-43.9)
5.Bryan Caforio, California 25 (Steve Knight, No Democratic opponent in 2014)
6.Emilio Huerta, California 21 (David Valadao, 57.8-42.2)
7.Colleen Deacon, New York 24 (John Katko, 59.5-40.3)
8.Francis Person, South Carolina 5 (Mick Mulvaney, 58.9-41.1)
9.Stephanie Murphy, Florida 7 (John Mica, Redistricted)
10.Jay Sidie, Kansas 3 (Kevin Yoder, 60.0-40.0)
11.Steve Lindbeck, Alaska (Don Young 51.0-41.0)
12.Mike Parrish, Pennsylvania 6 (Ryan Costello, 56.3-43.7)
13.Denise Juneau, Montana (Ryan Zinke, 55.4-40.4)
14.Nancy Jo Kemper, Kentucky 6 (Andy Barr, 60.0-40.0)
15.Erin McClelland, Pennsylvania 12 (Keith Rothfus, 59.3-40.7)

Vs Republican Freshmen
1.Charlie Crist, Florida 13 (Dave Jolly (First elected in Special Election in 2014), redistricted)
2.Brad Schneider, Illinois 10 (Bob Dold, 51.3-48.7
3.Pete Gallego, Texas 23 (Will Hurd, 49.8-47.7
4. Monica Vernon, Iowa 1 (Rod Blum, 51.1-48.8
5.Carol Shea-Porter, New Hampshire 1 (Frank Guinta (facing competitive primary challenge from Rick Ashooh, bless you) 51.7-48.1
6.Matt Heinz, Arizona 2, (Martha McSally, 50.0-49.9
7.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo, Florida 26, (Carlos Curbelo, 51.5-48.5
8.Anna Throne-Holst, New York 1 (Lee Zeldin, 54.4-45.5
9.Ruben Kihuen, Nevada 4 (Cresent Hardy, 48.5-45.8
10.Jim Mowrer, Iowa, 3 (David Young, 52.8-42.2)
11.Doug Owens, Utah 4 (Mia Love, 50.9-45.8
12.Emily Cain, Maine 2 (Bruce Poliquin, 47.0-41.8
13.Lu Ann Bennett, Virginia 10 (Barbara Comstock, 56.6-40.4)
14.Charles John Baricevic, Illinois 12 (Mike Bost, 52.5-41.9
15.Mike Derrick, New York 21, (Elise Stefanic, 55.1-33.8
16.Mark Hunt, West Virginia 2, (Alex Mooney, 47.1-43.9

Republican Open Seats
1.Val Demings or Bob Poe, Florida 10
2.Donald McEchin Virginia 4
3.Kim Myers, New York 22
4.Lon Johnson, Michigan 1
5.Jacky Rosen, Nevada 3
6.Angie Craig, Minnesota 2
7.Steve Santarsiero, Pennsylvania 8
8.Jane Dittmer, Virginia 5
9.Shelli Yoder, Indiana 9
10.Zephyr Teachout, New York 19
11.Christina Hartman, Pennsylvania 16
12.Tom Nelson, Wisconsin 8
13.Ryan Greene, Wyoming (Only competitive if Liz Cheney wins the Republican nomination)
14.Bruce Davis, North Carolina 13 (Only competitive because the Republican nominee isn't much of a fundraiser either)

Higher profile competitive Democrats in districts won by the Republicans by over 20% in 2014.
Elise Stefanic won in New York 21 by 21.3% in 2014, but she only received 55.1% of the vote, so I consider that result unique.

1.Douglas Applegate, California 49 (Darrell Issa, 60.2-39.8
2.John Plumb, New York 23 (Tom Reed, 61.7-38.3)
3.Gail Schwatz, Colorado 3 (Scott Tipton, 58.0-35.7)
4.Terri Bonoff, Minnesota 3 (Erik Paulsen, 62.1-37.8
5.Lynn Coleman, Indiana 2 (Jackie Walorski, 58.9-38.3)
6.Bill Otto, Missouri 2 (Ann Wagner, 64.1-32.6)
7.Scott Furhman, Florida 27 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Redistricted? If not, I don't think this district is competitive)

Districts added since last list after March financial donations filing: 1.New York 24, 2.South Carolina 5, 3.Pennsylvania 6, 4.Kentucky 6, 5.Pennsylvania 12, 6.New York 21, 7.Indiana 5, 8.Missouri 2, 9.Florida 27

Names/Districts removed since last list: 1.Frank Accavitti, Michigan 10, open seat, 2.Joel Lewis, Wisconsin 8 (Sean Duffy, Republican Incumbent)

My ranking, not including the 7 who are running in districts won by the Republican incumbent in 2014 by more than 20%, with the Elise Stefanik exception.

1.Val Demings or Bob Poe. Florida redistricting made this into a safe Democratic district. A ‘some dude’ is running for the Republicans.

2.Donald McEchin. Virginia redistricting has made this into a strongly leaning Democratic district but McEchin is facing a potentially competitive Republican County Sheriff challenger.

3.Charlie Crist. Florida redisticting has made this into a leaning Democratic competitive district. Crist is popular but so is the ‘incumbent’ Republican David Jolly. Opensecrets.org still lists Crist’s fundraising at $0.

4.Brad Schneider. Schneider was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this Illinois district in 2014.

5.Pete Gallego. Gallego was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this Texas district in 2014.

6.Kim Myers. A New York district that seems to elect moderate to liberal Republicans. The Republicans nominated an arch conservative in this open now open seat while Myers is a former County Councilor, small business owner and heiress to a fortune.

7.Monica Vernon. Leaning Democratic Iowa district that narrowly elected a Republican in the 2014 wave election. Monica Vernon seems to be a strong candidate

8.Josh Gottheimer. E. Scott Garrett is the long time Republican Representative who has a history of saying and doing stupid things. Gottheimer has badly out-raised him.

9.Carole Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter was the incumbent narrowly defeated in this New Hampshire district in both 2010 and 2014. The Republican incumbent has had ethical problems and is facing a competitive primary. Shea-Porter is hurt by the presence of Shawn O’Connor on the ballot, a former Democrat and wealthy tutoring company owner who quit the Democratic Party complaining about the party unfairly backing Shea-Porter over remaining neutral.

10.Lon Johnson. Open Republican seat that comprises the Michigan Peninsula. Former Democratic district with a lot of ‘working class’ voters that has slowly shifted Republican. Northern Midwestern ‘working class’ voters seem to be more favorable to Democrats possibly due to the more powerful union presence there, but Trump’s candidacy may help the eventual Republican nominee here. Johnson has done very well in fundraising.

11.Jacky Rosen. Open Nevada district. Rosen has done well in fundraising likely due to the support she has from Senator Harry Reid. Her Republican opponent is a wealthy businessman who has run multiple times and doesn’t seem to be well known.

12.Angie Craig. Open Minnesota district. Angie Craig has badly out fundraised the multiple slate of Republican Primary candidates.

13.Matt Heinz. Arizona district once held by Gabrielle Giffords. This district had the closest race in 2014.

14.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo. Joe Garcia was the incumbent who narrowly lost this Florida district in 2014 after ethics concern rose around him. He was personally cleared but at least one of his staffers faced some legal issues. Annette Taddeo is a frequent candidate but her strong fundraising totals suggest she might have figured out how to campaign.

15.Anna Throne-Holst. New York district won by a Republican over a Democratic incumbent in 2014. The Republican incumbent has apparently said/done at least a couple stupid things.

16.Steve Santarsiero. Open Pennsylvania district. Santarsiero is a State Representative facing the brother of the outgoing Republican Representative and has outraised him by nearly 2-1.

17.Jane Dittmer. Open Virginia based district. Dittmer is the Chair of a County Board and has outraised her Republican opponent, but fundraising hasn’t been great for either.

18.Ruben Kihuen. Nevada district that was a surprise pick-up for the Republicans in 2014.

19.Morgan Carroll. Colorado district that the Democrats have targeted for a number of cycles.

20.Gretchen Driskell. MIchigan district the Democrats seem to have targeted on and off for a number of cycles. The fundraising is strong in her.

21.Jim Mowrer. Iowa district held by a freshman Republican. Mowrer is an Iraq War Veteran who ran in the district held by Steve King in 2014.

22.Doug Owens. Owens was the 2014 nominee in this Utah district held by the popular retiring Democrat Matheson. Owens lost by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2014 to a supposedly star Republican. My guess is that if Republicans don’t turn out to vote in Utah due to Trump Owens will win, but if Republicans turn out to vote most likely for Gary Johnson, the Republican will win.

23.Emily Cain. Emily Cain was the 2014 nominee in this Maine district held by the Democrat, Michael Michaud who gave up the seat to run for Governor. This is the more Republican district in Maine. Cain ran a poor race against a well known Republican. She received only 42% of the vote but lost by only around 5% due to a third party candidate. But, apparently the third party (or independent) candidate was even more conservative than the Republican. Still, the national and state Democrats think highly of Cain and backed her for a rematch.

24.Lu Ann Bennett. This Virginia district is regarded as a swing district and is held by a Republican freshman.

25.Shelli Yoder. This Indiana district is an open seat race as the popular outgoing Republican incumbent is their nominee for the open U.S Senate race. The Republican nominee here is a very wealthy mysterious property developer who moved to the state seemingly just to run for the House. The conventional wisdom is that this is a safe Republican district but Yoder was the Democratic nominee in 2012 and lost to Young only 55-45. (Though Young probably wasn’t as popular back then in the district.)

26.Charles John Baricevic. This Illinois Democratic leaning district won by the Republicans in the 2014 wave election was given up for lost when no high profile Democrat ran for the nomination, but Baricevic has proven himself to be a credible candidate and relatively strong fundraiser.

27.Zephyr Teachout. Some people will probably hate me for this, but I think Teachout might be too progressive for this upstate New York open district held by an outgoing Republican. Her Republican opponent is popular in this area as a former State Assembly minority leader who was the Republican nominee for Governor in 2006 (though he lost badly to Eliot Spitzer.)

28.Christina Hartman. This is the other open Pennsylvania district. It was actually more competitive in 2014 than the district Santarsiero is running in, but Hartman’s fundraising is lagging behind her Republican opponent, a State Senator named Lloyd Smucker. Unfortunately for the Democrats, with a name like Smucker, he has to be good.

29.Michael Eggman. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. The Republican incumbent did better than expected in the ‘Jungle’ California Primary but the convention wisdom here is that with Trump at the top of the tickets and two Democrats running for the open U.S Senate seat, Republican turnout will be very depressed in California.

30.Bryan Carofio. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. See above for Republican turnout prediction.

31.Emilio Huerta. California district held by a longtime Republican incumbent. See above for Republican turnout prediction.

32.Colleen Deacon. New York district. I don't think the Democrats have normally targeted this district but Deacon is a potentially strong challenger to the longtime Republican incumbent.

33.Tom Nelson. Open Wisconsin seat. Nelson is a county executive who was the candidate the Democrats hope would run here. Still this district went for the outgoing Republican incumbent by a nearly 2-1 margin in 2014.

34.Mike Derrick. New York district held by Freshman Republican Elise Stefanik, a young former official in the W. Bush Administration who took this former Democratic held district thanks in part to the Republican wave. She was also helped by the presence of a well liked Green Party candidate who is running again but has barely raised any money this cycle.

35.Francis Person. South Carolina district. Person is a former senior longtime aide to Joe Biden. Yes, there are potentially competitive districts in South Carolina as the Republican incumbent won here by less than 60-40% in 2014 and Person has shown he has the connections to be a strong fundraiser.

36.Stephanie Murphy. Florida districted redistricted to be a swing district. The initially favored Democratic candidate was a bank Vice President who proved to be a poor fundraiser. Murphy, who entered the race only about a week before the Florida filing deadline (ask Marco Rubio for the date) is a political science professor with a background in national security issues. We’ll see if she can make this district competitive for the Democrats.

37.Jay Sidie. Kansas district. The Democrats did hold one or two districts in Kansas from 2006-2010 or so, so this isn’t an impossible district for Sidie to win, especially given the extreme unpopularity of the Republican Governor Sam Brownback

38.Steve Lindbeck. Alaska district. If the too long Republican incumbent Don Young says or does something stupid before election day, this could finally be the cycle he loses reelection. If not, Young should be reelected.

39.Mark Hunt. West Virginia district. Only really potentially competitive because the Republican freshman is still having to deal somewhat with his recently moving from Maryland.

40.Mike Parrish. Pennsylvania district the Democrats have targeted for a number of cycles but seem to keep winding up with disapointing candidates. Parrish is a former Republican and Army Reserve Colonel with a succesful business background as well, but national and state Democrats wrote him off when his fundraising also showed to be anemic. He has slowly started to pick up in that regard though, and this could be competitive if the national and state Democrats give him a second look.

41.Denise Juneau. Montana district. The Republican incumbent is considered to be popular but he won by a relatively small 15% in the wave Republican 2014 cycle. Juneau is the outgoing State Superintendent of Public Instruction an elected position in Montana and is a good fundraiser. She should maybe be higher on this list.

42.Nancy Jo Kemper. Kentucky district based in Lexington. She should be helped by the very popular Lexington Mayor, Jim Gray, running against Rand Paul for the U.S Senate. She has something of high profile as a senior United Church Minister and as an anti gambling activist. I’m not sure if her anti gambling activism will help or hurt her.

43.Erin McClelland. Pennsylvania district. McClelland was the 2014 Democratic nominee and lost by less than 20%.

44.Ryan Greene. Wyoming district with a retiring incumbent. Will probably only be competitive if Liz Cheney wins the Republican nomination and then it will probably be a top tier target for the Democrats. Greene is a credible candidate as an executive in the family owned resource sector business and previously worked in ‘blue collar’ jobs for the firm.

45.Bruce Davis. North Carolina district that was redistricted. I don’t know if it was made more Democratic leaning or not, but it is an open seat. Davis is a former commissioner of a county with a population of more than 300,000, but his fundraising is very poor. I would suggest to national Democrats though that if this district was not made less Democratic in the redistricting that they give Davis a look. I don’t know much about his Republican opponent, but I know that he’s the owner of a gun range, so he could be a gun rights extremist. His fundraising also hasn’t been great.

Opensecrets.org updated Congressional candidate fundraising totals

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday July 23, 2016 · 3:01 PM PDT

2016/07/23 · 15:01

At the bottom of their website they still have 'last updated 6/15/2016' but they have updated numbers.

For example, Douglas Applegate in OpenSecrets.org last published figure had raised around $53,800 has now raised $186,104.

Here are the most interesting numbers

House Races

Alaska
Don Young (R)*    $656,647
Steve Lindbeck (D) $418,721

California 3
John Garamendi (D)*    $779,763
N Eugene Cleek (R) $350,535

California 7
Ami Bera (D)*    $2,533,916
Scott Jones (R)    $623,266

California 10
Jeff Denham (R)*    $2,286,864
Michael Eggman (D)  $758,337

California 16
Jim Costa (D)*    $1,268,064
Johnny Tacherra (R) $328,340

California 17
Mike Honda (D)* $2,166,208
Ro Khanna (D)    $2,881,055

California 20
Jimmy Panetta (D)    $743,177
Casey Lucius (R)    $239,466

California 21
David Valadao (R)*    $1,894,209
Emilio Huerta (D) $307,790

California 24
Salud Carbajal (D)    $2,142,355
Justin Fareed (R)    $1,226,396

California 25
Steve Knight (R)*    $1,038,018
Bryan Caforio (D)    $582,281

California 31
Pete Aguilar (D)* $2,300,546
Paul Chabot (R)    $441,055

California 32
Grace Napolitano (D)* $569,380
Roger Hernandez (D)    $170,642

California 44
Isadore Hall (D)    $1,166,394
Nanette Barragan (D) $899,127

California 49
Darrell Issa (R)* $751,393
Douglas L. Applegate (D)    $186,104

California 52
Scott Peters (D)*    $2,652,120
Denise Gitsham (R)    $728,616

Colorado 3
Scott Tipton (R)*    $1,151,715
Gail Schwartz (D)    $622,055

Colorado 6
Mike Coffman (R)*    $2,304,106
Morgan Carroll (D)    $1,373,048

Florida 2
Neal Dunn (R)    $1,149,825
Mary Thomas (R)    $785,546
Ken Sukhia (R)    $179,281
Jeff Moran (R)    $17,545
Walt Dartland (D)    $15,000

Florida 7
John L Mica (R)*    $616,567
Stephanie Murphy (D) $126,347

Florida 10
Bob Poe (D)    $1,878,033
Val Demings (D)    $826,178
Geraldine Thompson (D)    $177,755
Thuy Lowe (R) ?

Florida 23
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)* $3,072,629
Tim Canova (D)    $2,262,482

Florida 24
Frederica Wilson (D)* $386,529
Randal Hill (D)    $119,833

Florida 26
Carlos Curbelo (R)*    $2,719,895
Annette Taddeo (D)    $1,320,402

Joe Garcia (D) ?

Florida 27
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)* $839,982
Scott Fuhrman (D)    $544,989

Georgia 3
Drew Ferguson (R)    $782,044
Mike Crane (R)    $417,072

Illinois 8
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)    $2,678,458
Peter Dicianni (R) $173,064

Illinois 10
Bob Dold (R)*    $3,888,489
Brad Schneider (D)    $2,887,967

Illinois 11
Bill Foster (D)*    $2,098,320
Tonia Khouri (R)    $571,170

Illinois 12
Mike Bost (R)*    $1,824,904
Charles John Baricevic (D)    $748,141

Indiana 2
Jackie Walorski (R)*    $1,401,109
Lynn Coleman (D) $285,160

Indiana 9
Trey Hollingsworth (R) $2,610,161
Shelli Yoder (D) $627,639

Iowa 1
Rod Blum (R)*    $1,654,182
Monica Vernon (D)    $1,650,794

Iowa 3
David Young (R)*    $1,643,487
Jim Mowrer (D) $939,795

Kansas 1
Tim Huelskamp (R)*    $676,246
Roger Marshall (R) $863,633

Kansas 3
Kevin Yoder (R)* $1,906,255
Jay Sidie (D) $104,132

Kentucky 6
Andy Barr (R)*    $1,876,752
Nancy Jo Kemper (D)$225,026

Maine 2
Bruce Poliquin (R)*    $2,611,194
Emily Cain (D) $1,693,828

Maryland 3
John Sarbanes (D)*    $851,547
Mark Plaster (R) $374,555

Maryland 6
John K Delaney (D)*    $1,093,583
Amie Hoeber (R) $767,833

Michigan 1
Lon Johnson (D)    $1,256,070
Tom Casperson (R $365,721
John Bergman (R)    $346,131
Jason Allen (R) $282,151
Jerry Cannon (D) $42,702

Michigan 7
Tim Walberg (R)* $1,633,872
Gretchen Driskell (D) $1,481,637

Minnesota 2
Angie Craig (D)    $2,469,478
John Howe (R) $596,701
Darlene Miller (R)   $374,684
Jason Lewis (R) $342,582
David Gerson (R)    $248,000

Minnesota 3
Erik Paulsen (R)*    $3,040,610
Terri Bonoff (D) $621,189

Missouri 2
Ann L Wagner (R)*    $1,742,522
Bill Otto (D) $265,480

Montana
Ryan K Zinke (R)*    $3,481,170
Denise Juneau (D)   $1,136,789

Nebraska 2
Brad Ashford (D)* $1,668,374
Don Bacon (R) $658,542

Nevada 3
Danny Tarkanian (R)    $941,743
Jacky Rosen (D) $557,692

Nevada 4
Cresent Hardy (R)*    $1,194,477
Ruben Kihuen (D) $1,165,530

New Hampshire 1
Frank Guinta (R)*    $912,282
Shawn O'Connor (I) $746,546
Carol Shea-Porter (D)    $674,988
Rick Ashooh (bless you) (R) ?

New Jersey 4
Chris Smith (R)*    $390,020
Lorna Phillipson (D)    $246,158

New Jersey 5
Scott Garrett (R)* $1,357,412
Josh Gottheimer (D) $ 2,899,643

New York 1
Lee Zeldin (R)*    $3,152,073
Anna Throne-Holst (D) $1,981,613

New York 2
Pete King (R)*    $744,873
DuWayne Gregory (D) $263,058

New York 3
Tom Suozzi (D)    $855,972
Jack Martins (R)    $558,567

New York 4
Kathleen Rice (D)*    $1,808,895
David Gurfein (R)      $376,225

New York 19
Zephyr Teachout (D)    $1,631,121
John Faso (R) $1,400,550

New York 21
Elise Stefanik (R)* $2,177,128
Mike Derrick (D) $673,207
Matt Funicello (G) $6,371

New York 22
Kim Myers (D)    $689,220
Claudia Tenney (R)    $254,541

New York 23
Tom Reed (R)*    $2,323,515
John Plumb (D) $854,816

New York 24
John Katko (R)*    $1,917,462
Colleen Deacon (D)$641,261

North Carolina 13
Ted Budd (R)    $200,636
Bruce Davis (D)  $32,910

Pennsylvania 6
Ryan Costello (R)* $1,942,998
Mike Parrish (D) $214,468

Pennsylvania 8
Steve Santarsiero (D) $1,608,671
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)    $945,645

Pennsylvania 11
Lou Barletta (R)*    $868,085
Michael Marsicano (D) $335,750

Pennsylvania 16
Lloyd Smucker (R)   $917,861
Christina Hartman (D) $403,275

South Carolina 5
Mick Mulvaney (R)*    $778,101
Francis J Person (D)    $403,443

Tennessee 4
Scott Desjarlais (R)*    $532,900
Grant Starrett (R) $1,295,117

Texas 23
Will Hurd (R)*    $2,550,463
Pete Gallego (D)  $1,273,280

Utah 2
Chris Stewart (R)*    $611,548
Charlene Albarran (D) $398,227

Utah 4
Mia Love (R)*    $3,350,567
Doug Owens (D) $1,436,330

Virginia 4
Donald McEachin (D)    $341,032
Mike Wade (R) $56,663

Virginia 5
Jane Dittmar (D) $556,577
Tom Garrett (R) $151,426

Virginia 10
Barbara Comstock (R)* $3,230,731
LuAnn Bennett (D) $1,201,960

West Virginia 2
Alex Mooney (R)* $912,081
Mark Hunt (D) $188,245

Wisconsin 1
Paul Ryan (R)*    $14,684,685 (!!!)
Paul Nehlen (R)    $589,006
Tom Breu (D) $22,641

Wisconsin 8
Mike Gallagher (R)    $922,066
Tom Nelson (D)    $530,368
Frank Lasee (R)    $310,513

Wyoming
Tim Stubson (R)    $199,629
Leland Christensen (R) $107,488
Ryan Greene (D)    $86,948
Liz Cheney (R) ?

U.S Senate

Senate Races
Alaska
Lisa Murkowski (R)*    $5,305,988
Margaret Stock (I) $269,933

Arizona
John McCain (R)*    $11,772,299
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)    $4,732,641
Kelli Ward (R) $845,296
Alex Meluskey (R) $664,475

California
Kamala D Harris (D)    $11,257,000
Loretta Sanchez (D) $3,718,546

Colorado
Michael F Bennet (D)* $14,475,020
Darryl Glenn (R) $153,511

Florida
Marco Rubio (R)* $10,964,374
Patrick Murphy (D)    $10,260,267
Alan Grayson (D) $2,459,173
Pam Keith (D) $186,923

Illinois
Mark Kirk (R)* $10,266,213
Tammy Duckworth (D) $7,437,727

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R)*    $6,166,200
Patty Judge (D) $714,473

Kentucky
Rand Paul (R)*    $8,323,424
Jim Gray (D) $2,851,349

Louisiana
John Kennedy (R) $1,763,668
Caroline Fayard (D) $1,116,967
Foster Campbell (D) $996,317
John Fleming (R) $928,238
Josh Pellerin (D) $118,069
Charles Boustany (R) ?

Maryland
Chris Van Hollen (D)    $8,071,562
Kathy Szeliga (R) $431,746

Missouri
Roy Blunt (R)*    $12,505,787
Jason Kander (D) $6,363,508

Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) $8,694,746
Joe Heck (R) $6,268,445

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R)* $9,446,513
Maggie Hassan (D)    $7,621,713

New York
Charles E Schumer (D)* $23,312,045
Wendy Long (R) $123,317

North Carolina
Richard Burr (R)*    $8,707,382
Deborah Ross (D)    $3,932,343

Ohio
Rob Portman (R)*    $18,055,017
Ted Strickland (D) $7,068,790

Oregon
Ron Wyden (D)*    $10,771,093
Mark Callahan (R) $15,852

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R)*    $22,852,599
Katie McGinty (D)    $6,713,202

Utah
Mike Lee (R)*    $4,481,430
Misty K Snow (D) $6,083
I smell upset!

Washington
Patty Murray (D)* $10,509,353
Chris Vance (R) $200,534

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R)*    $11,589,004
Russ Feingold (D)    $10,686,995

Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics. For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: crp.org

Jeff Sharlet is on Coast to Coast tonight

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday August 22, 2009 · 5:41 PM PDT

2009/08/22 · 17:41

Coast to Coast, for those who don't know, is the radio show started by Art Bell in the late 1980s that discussed UFOs and other government cover ups.

It now covers all sorts of topics both mainstream and 'out there'.

Jeff Sharlet is the author of the book 'The Family' http://jeffsharlet.blogspot.com/... an expose of a far right wing organization that is publicly known for it's prayer breakfasts but privately supports right wing dictators and promotes views, for instance, that the rich deserve to be rich and the poor deserve to be poor.

A number of member of Congress are members of this organization including so-called 'moderate' Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. It would please me greatly if that came out during the show.

Coast to Coast airs from 10PM to 2 AM PDT
Here is the listing of affiliates: http://www.coasttocoastam.com/...

Jeff Sharlet will most likely be on from 11PM on.

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday August 04, 2009 · 1:22 AM PDT

2009/08/04 · 01:22

The title of this diary is what Bill Clinton said at the 2000 Democratic Convention. ("We've tried their way, we've tried our way, our way just works better."

At least in regards to economic growth, the data is now in to confirm that:

Calculated from information from www.measuringworth.com:

Growth of real GDP per capita under Clinton: 1993-2000: 2.65%
Growth of real GDP per capita under Bush: 2001-2008: 1.42%

Some may say that this comparison isn't entirely fair because Clinton took power when a recession was just ending, whereas Bush took power when a recession was just starting. So, we can modify the results to exclude the first year:

Growth of real GDP per capita under Clinton 1994-2000: 2.63%
Growth of real GDP per capita under Bush 2002-2008: 1.55%

Still a huge difference.

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday August 02, 2009 · 4:33 PM PDT

2009/08/02 · 16:33

This isn't a big concern right now, but it will be again in the future.

Increase the capital gains tax rate during periods of 'irrational exuberance' and lower it during recessions.

When there is inflation in asset prices but little actual measured inflation, why should interest rates be pushed up to deal with asset price rises? Raising the capital gains tax rate would push out the speculators but likely not effect most beneficial economic activity (depending on how much the rate was increased).

The problem to this idea is, of course, political. Politicians will never raise any tax and the right wing gasbags on the financial news shows would lie that raising the capital gains tax rate would be the end of capitalism.

Using fiscal policy like taxes to fine tune the economy has gone out of favor since the 1970s, and generally rightly so, but there are usually exceptions to every rule.

I'd recommend giving the Federal Reserve the power to set the capital gains tax rate.

Also, anybody know of any liberal forums dedicated to economics?

Newspaper articles on Democratic Congressional candidates, Part 3

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday July 05, 2009 · 12:40 PM PDT

2009/07/05 · 12:40

Consider this a companion piece to Benawu's diaries on Congressional candidates: http://www.dailykos.com/...

I hope to post this series on candidates as they enter the race to take on Republican incumbents or in Republican open seats. The Republicans have a bit of an advantage in candidate recruitment at present as they have candidates in over 80 districts held by Democrats while the Democrats only have around 40-50.

So, hopefully this series will do a little bit to increase the exposure of Congrrssional Democratic Candidates.

Part 1 is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

Part 2 is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 02, 2009 · 10:27 PM PDT

2009/07/02 · 22:27

Consider this a companion piece to Benawu's diaries on Congressional candidates: http://www.dailykos.com/...

So, hopefully this series will do a little bit to increase the exposure of Congressional Democratic Candidates.

Part 1 is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 30, 2009 · 11:05 PM PDT

2009/06/30 · 23:05

Consider this a companion piece to Benawu's diaries on Congressional candidates: http://www.dailykos.com/...

So, hopefully this series will do a little bit to increase the exposure of Congrrssional Democratic Candidates.

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 23, 2009 · 6:59 PM PDT

2009/06/23 · 18:59

I haven't been keeping up with the health care debate all that much (I'm a Canadian citizen) so, I don't know what the lastest is, but I gather as of a week ago at least, the Democrats were trying to get Republicans on board for whatever plan the Senate tried to pass and I remember Barack Obama trying to ensure that Charles Grassley was able to speak at some meeting held a couple months ago.

I gather Charles Grassley is an important player in whatever negotiations take place.

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 02, 2009 · 3:46 PM PDT

2009/06/02 · 15:46

DesMoinesdem wrote this diary yesterday: http://www.dailykos.com/... and it inspired me to post this diary.

I came up with a list of about 20 names after the 2008 presidential race, I've dropped a few since then and added a couple.

On the list

Governors
1.Sarah Palin, Alaska
2.Charlie Crist, Florida
3.Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
4.Haley Barbour, Mississippi
5.Mark Sanford, South Carolina

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 06, 2009 · 5:13 PM PDT

2009/05/06 · 17:13

Forgive me for posting a non political, personal diary here, but it is fascinating and people may learn some things (any excuse will do! :))

For about 2 weeks, I was virtually brain dead, I don't just mean being 'brain dead' like people say when they are very tired, I mean it literally. And, no, this is not a joke.

As I started going down the process, I asked a person I know on another board about the chemical process of brain functioning in general and he replied (not an exact quote) "dopamine is essentially the oil that regulates brain function and moves thoughts along."

Well, for two weeks, the dopamine was basically not working.

Adam T

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday April 09, 2009 · 5:19 PM PDT

2009/04/09 · 17:19

The polls for around March 24 have finally been posted on the Survey U.S.A site. I put '50 state' tracking in quotes because they only poll 14 states now :(.

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

The polls are broken down into a lot of categories (though the error rates would likely be fairly high for each).

They have them broken down by gender, age, race, home ownership, marital status, job status, party affiliation, ideology, income and religion.

I don't post any of that here. (It would be too much clutter)

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Competitive Democratic House of Representative candidates

Opensecrets.org updated Congressional candidate fundraising totals

Jeff Sharlet is on Coast to Coast tonight

Our way just works better

A way to prevent future asset bubbles?

Newspaper articles on Democratic Congressional candidates, Part 3

Newspaper Articles on Democratic Congressional candidates Part 2

Newspaper articles on 2010 Democratic U.S House candidates

Charles Grassley is a member of an extreme right wing organization

My analysis of the 2012 Republican presidential field

My bizarre story: questions for psychiatrists, neurologists and other brain researchers

Latest Survey U.S.A '50 state' tracking polls